I asked Google How many Pedal Steels are sold compared to standard guitars?

[Dom Franco]

According to GOOGLE (AI Mode)

Compared to the millions of standard guitars sold annually, only an estimated 200 new pedal steel guitars are sold worldwide each year, representing a ratio of about one pedal steel for every 10,000 standard guitars. This makes pedal steels an extremely niche instrument within the guitar market.

WOW!

[Michael Hill]

I asked google ai for instruments less popular than pedal steel. A few of the results were:
- Theremin
- Glass Armonica
- Hurdy Gurdy

lol!

[Donny Hinson]

I'd say that the 200 figure is probably not far off, although I'd probably put the number higher, but still in the hundreds. Hard to believe that back in 1958, about the time I first took an interest in the steel guitar, there were actually more steel guitars in the Fender catalog than there were regular guitars! Of course, you might have expected that back then because their first products were steel guitars made under the "K&F" brand back in the 1940's.

[Michael Lester]

I'm a bit skeptical about that number because I believe that the majority of sales are private. Google would not have access to those transactions.

As a follow-up to Dom's question I asked GROK "How many pedal steel guitar players are there in the U.S.?

There is a lengthy response from GROK that estimates that there are 40,000 to 50,000 players globally. The response even includes a reference to The Steel Guitar Forum as a source of information!

Type How many pedal steel guitar players are there in the U.S.? in the GROK app.

Interesting Ai analysis from 36 on-line sources.

[Donny Hinson]

I took the question as considering "new guitar sales" only, as I don't think that used guitar sales is germane, or can even be estimated. Consider that some individual instruments might be sold several times in a single year, and some might even be given away, so how would you count them?

[Dave Mudgett]

Someone reported the original post as "Misinformation and AI slop." Report noted, but that is not really a reason to report a post. Dom reported accurately what an AI algorithm stated, so that is not misinformation.

Personally, I think AI is pretty sloppy in general. It's the nature of the beast - it works when it works, but sometimes doesn't. My issue is that AI software seems to always want to "give an answer". I think a human is much more willing to say "I can't figure that out."

I think, considering builders of lower-end steels these days, the number is more than 200. But I don't think that estimate is orders of magnitude off. I think even on the forum, one of us could probably take a few hours analyzing things - the number of active builders, estimate how many each is building, figure an estimate of 'off-the-grid' builders, and sum them up to get a reasonable, in-the-ballpark answer. We have the benefit of knowing (or being able to figure out) stuff that isn't necessarily online. I think one good indicator is the wait-times on steels. Couple that with a reasonable estimate of how long it actually takes to build one and how many a shop can build in parallel, then one should be able to back into a reasonable estimate for a builder.

There is a lengthy response from GROK that estimates that there are 40,000 to 50,000 players globally.

This would imply that there are at least 40,000-50,000 pedal steels globally. And remember, lots of pedal steel players have multiple instruments. Lots of players have several pedal steels. So the number of physical steels would have to be even higher. At an average of 200/year, even going back 60 years to 1965 (yeah, I know there was a time more were being built than there are now, but there were periods where there were only a handful being made annually), that would only yield 12,000 pedal steels. And lots of steels from earlier periods are trash now. So something doesn't add up with those two estimates.

But I've said it many times - pedal steel is, and has always been, a niche instrument. Nothing I have ever seen contradicts this.

[John Hyland]

It might be more accurate to list the primary commercial builders and make an estimate of how many guitars could they build in one year to be profitable.

[John Hyland]

Another query using serial numbers gave this result.
[start]
Good call — serial numbers are the best way to pin this down.

For Mullen pedal steels:
Early numbering (1980s–1990s): Mullen used a straight sequential serial number system stamped on the endplate. The earliest known steels are in the double digits (00xx).

2000s onward: The sequence kept climbing without a reset. On the Steel Guitar Forum, owners have reported instruments in the #3500–#4500 range as of the late 2010s.

Recent builds: People who’ve ordered new G2 or Discovery models in the 2020s mention serials in the #4800–#5000+ range.

That means:
The total production since 1980 is almost certainly around 5,000 pedal steels (give or take a few hundred).
That lines up with what you’d expect from ~120 instruments per year average across 40+ years.
[end]